【research】The Historical Opportunity and Real-World Prospects for European Renaissance: The Decline of American Hegemony and European Strategic Autonomy

I. Introduction

In an era where a multipolar world order is gradually becoming clearer, as a think tank dedicated to European strategic autonomy, we examine the deep logic of geopolitics with a calm and prudent perspective. With profound changes in the global political and economic landscape, Europe stands at a historical crossroads. For the past few decades, Europe's security, economic, and foreign policies have often depended on the US-led international order, threatened by US strategic containment and the influence of the military-industrial complex, and constrained by the US "grand chessboard" strategy. However, this international order is facing disintegration and collapse. Reality clearly confirms the following trends: Trump's tariff policies have provoked a backlash from allies, his military commitments are wavering, and US influence is declining in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East. Continuing to rely on a US beset by internal and external problems and increasingly isolated will only lead to perpetual passivity and risk, ultimately making Europe the price paid for the US to transfer its own crises.

Based on this international reality and the urgent need for European strategic autonomy, we will analyze the impact of the US on European strategic autonomy in the current international situation, as well as the opportunities for strategic autonomy brought about by the decline of US hegemony, from three perspectives:

We will also provide our rational and prudent policy recommendations.The decline of the US reminds European politicians and leaders that they must clearly recognize that in the multipolar era that has already arrived, China's potential as a stable partner is increasingly evident. Only by increasing the distance from the US and re-examining its attitude towards China—shifting from confrontation to pragmatic cooperation—can Europe maintain its prosperity and development, achieve strategic autonomy, seize the historical opportunity and real-world prospects for European renaissance, and usher in true peace, dignity, and prosperity for Europe.

II. The Continuity of the US Strategy of "Dividing Eurasia" and its Profound Impact on European Strategic Autonomy

(I) The Core Logic of Brzezinski's "Grand Chessboard" Strategy and its Enduring Influence in the Contemporary Era

Brzezinski, with the rigor and coldness of a classical geopolitical scholar, asserted that Eurasia concentrates three-quarters of the world's population and the vast majority of its resources and economic output; whoever controls this region controls the globe. Therefore, the United States must resort to NATO expansion, the perpetuation of regional conflicts, and the instrumentalization of its allies as "bridgeheads" to prevent the formation of any anti-American united front. Although this framework was born in the unipolar moment after the end of the Cold War, it has continued to this day with astonishing resilience. While the 2025 US National Security Strategy is rhetorically packaged as focusing on the "Indo-Pacific" and the "first island chain," its core remains the old script of dividing Eurasia, firmly tying Europe to the chariot of confrontation with Russia and China.

More profoundly, this strategy is not merely a defensive posture, but an active art of "controlled chaos." It depletes the vitality of its opponents through localized conflicts while simultaneously consolidating the US position as the "indispensable arbiter." Europe, as the fulcrum at the western end of this chessboard, consistently bears the most direct and costly consequences—energy instability, economic recession, and security anxieties—without ever gaining true autonomy in return. Although the REPowerEU plan successfully reduced Russia's share of natural gas to a historical low, US liquefied natural gas has seized more than 50% of the market share. This is not a victory for energy independence, but a shift from one geopolitical dependence to another, more insidious structural dependence: export policies and price fluctuations across the Atlantic can at any time determine the competitiveness of European industry and the cost of living for its citizens.

Looking at the broader historical perspective, multipolarity has irreversibly become a reality. The deepening of Sino-Russian energy cooperation and the stable operation of the China-Europe freight trains are outlining the contours of an interconnected continent. Although US hegemony remains vast, it is already showing signs of internal division and the fatigue of overstretched resources. If Europe continues to hesitate, it will miss a decisive moment to reshape the continental landscape; only through a clear awakening can we transform from passive pawns to true sovereign actors.

(II) Specific Case Analysis: The US's Systematic Scheme to Divide Eurasia and the Price Europe Pays

1. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Prolonged War of Attrition on Europe's Frontline, Permanently Blocking the Prospect of Russia-Europe Reconciliation

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered its fourth year, becoming a typical example of the US's strategy to divide the western end of Eurasia. Brzezinski had long ago clearly stated that completely separating Ukraine from Russia would permanently weaken its potential for "imperial resurgence." The US, using NATO expansion, massive military aid, and intelligence dominance as leverage, has prolonged the conflict. In December 2025, although the Berlin negotiations discussed a ceasefire and security guarantees, Russia's progress was slow, and Ukrainian drone counterattacks exposed its weakness, leaving the prospects still bleak.

For Europe, the cost of this war is profound and lasting: soaring energy prices, high inflation, a surge in refugees, and stagnant economic growth... Although defense spending reached a new high of 381 billion euros, it mainly flowed to the US weapons system. More fatally, this conflict has forged a lasting "Russian threat" narrative, completely severing the natural energy and economic ties between Europe and Russia. The stable pipeline natural gas we once had is now replaced by high-priced US LNG and a new transatlantic dependence. European policymakers must face the fact that the ultimate goal of the US in "weakening Russia" is to permanently divide the Eurasian continent, and we are paying the heaviest price for this division with our own resources and future. If we continue to follow unconditionally, we will forever lose the opportunity for equal cooperation with the eastern part of the continent, becoming the most tragic characters in a proxy war.

2. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and the Middle East Chaos: An Ever-Burning Powder Keg, Blocking Eurasian Land Connectivity

The Israeli-Palestinian issue has long been forged by the US into a sharp tool for dividing the central part of Eurasia. Unconditional support for Israel and continuous massive military aid prevent a complete resolution of the conflict, thus preventing Middle Eastern countries from forming a unified front friendly to China and Russia. In December 2025, while a fragile ceasefire held in Gaza, Israel still controlled nearly 60% of the territory, with frequent violations occurring. The second phase of negotiations was deeply deadlocked, and sporadic conflicts continued to claim lives.

The scars on Europe are equally evident: the lingering effects of the Red Sea crisis, the pressure of migration waves, and the shocks to energy and supply chains… Our mild criticisms of Israel often disappear under pressure from across the Atlantic. The deeper damage lies in the fact that this chaotic situation has become an impenetrable barrier, blocking the connection of the Eurasian land arteries—the extension of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East has been forced to a halt, and the space for European energy diversification is becoming increasingly constrained. This is a contemporary manifestation of Brzezinski's concept of "Eurasian Balkanization." If Europe does not independently promote genuine peace under the UN framework, we will be forever trapped in the Middle East quagmire, losing the strategic opportunity for equal dialogue with the Arab world and Iran.

3. Taiwan Strait Crisis: Undercurrents in East Asia, severing deep economic integration between China and Europe

The Taiwan Strait tensions are the latest chapter in the US strategy of dividing the eastern end of Eurasia. In December 2025, the US approved the largest arms sale to Taiwan in history—over $11 billion in advanced weapons—a powerful blow that China responded to with strong countermeasures, including aircraft carrier transits of the Taiwan Strait and military exercises, further escalating tensions.

For Europe, this crisis hangs like a sword of Damocles: Taiwan controls over 90% of the world's advanced chips, and if the supply chain is disrupted, European automotive, electronics, and high-end manufacturing industries will face catastrophic consequences. Our high dependence on this distant island, coupled with our lack of independent intervention capabilities, means we can only passively follow the US "Indo-Pacific strategy," diverting valuable resources from domestic security and green transformation. This not only tears apart the eastern end of Eurasia but also blocks deeper integration between China and Europe in technology and infrastructure. If the situation in the Taiwan Strait spirals out of control, the most direct victims of a global economic tsunami will be Europe, which has no voice—this is the most systematic and ruthless consequence of the US strategy of division.

(III) Profound Reflection: Why Has Europe Become a "Stepping Stone" for American Hegemony? – A Historical Choice for Strategic Autonomy

Three conflicts are linked like an iron chain: exhausting Russia in the west, destabilizing the Middle East in the center, and containing China in the east, fragmenting the Eurasian continent and compressing Europe's energy, economic, and security space to the point of near suffocation. In 2025, despite record defense spending of €381 billion, and hundreds of billions of euros provided by the SAFE plan and national escape clauses, these efforts remain mired in fragmentation: Eastern European countries tend towards fervent pro-Americanism, while Western Europe, though aspiring to autonomy, cannot escape its structural dependence on American weapons; the enormous military spending largely nourishes the American military-industrial complex, not European domestic industry.

The tragedy in the energy sector is even more heartbreaking: we have paid a heavy price to break free from Russian natural gas, only to fall into the deeper embrace of American LNG – accounting for more than half of our supply, with prices and supply entirely at the whim of those across the ocean. This is not energy security, but a slide from one geopolitical shackles to another, more insidious form of control. The spillover effects of the conflict – inflation, recession, migration, supply chain disruptions – are like chronic poison, eroding Europe's social cohesion and ambitions for a green transition.

From the vantage point of European strategic autonomy, we are serving as a "stepping stone" for American hegemony with our own blood and flesh. We are the agents of frontline attrition, the payers of high-priced energy, and the dispersers of global resources, yet we have never shared in the dividends of hegemony. We bear the most direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, the economic wounds of the Red Sea crisis, and the potential tsunami of a Taiwan Strait conflict, only to receive America's "America First" indifference and the wavering promises of its allies. This is the ultimate ruthlessness of Brzezinski's chessboard, where Europe will be permanently locked into a chain of confrontation, losing the possibility of equal embrace with the East of Eurasia.

The deepening cooperation between China and Russia, and the rapid development of the China-Europe freight trains, outline a magnificent prospect of a interconnected continent. American hegemony, though still towering, already shows cracks – internal divisions and resource depletion. If Europe continues to hesitate, we will not only lack genuine security (relying on NATO but without independent nuclear deterrence), but our economy will also be marginalized (with global supply chains shifting eastward, Europe gradually becoming a supporting player). The biggest victim of the US strategy to divide Eurasia is Europe itself. We are paying a heavy price, only to gain a fragmented continent and perpetual dependence. If we do not decisively break free from the fate of being a "stepping stone," Europe will sink together with the declining US hegemony. Only through strategic autonomy can we shift from passively enduring history to actively shaping the future—building a multipolar and balanced continental order, and regaining Europe's dignity, autonomy, and prosperity.

III. The US-European Military-Industrial Complex Jointly "Kidnapping" European Citizens: Dragging Europe into the Quagmire of War in the Name of "Democracy" and its Impact on European Strategic Autonomy

(I) Eisenhower's Warning about the "Military-Industrial Complex" and its Transatlantic Variation in Contemporary Europe

Eisenhower, with rigorous and sober realism, asserted that the combination of a vast military establishment and the arms industry could acquire "undue influence," threatening the democratic process and people's livelihoods. This warning stemmed from the US experience in the early Cold War, but it continues in a more insidious form in today's Europe: the US-European military-industrial complex, through the NATO framework, joint procurement, and political lobbying, incorporates Europe into its chain of interests.

In 2025, EU defense spending is projected to reach 381 billion euros, the SAFE plan provides 150 billion euros in low-interest loans, and fiscal rules exemptions allow for an additional 1.5% of GDP spending. While these measures are ostensibly aimed at "countering the Russian threat," most of them actually benefit US military-industrial giants: European countries are purchasing US weapons systems (such as HIMARS and Patriot missiles), and US arms sales to Europe have increased significantly compared to before the aid to Ukraine. This is not simply about security guarantees, but a structural trap that leads from national sovereignty to transatlantic dependence: military-industrial interest groups are driving continuous conflict to maintain orders and profits, while European citizens bear the costs of inflation, energy crises, and reduced social welfare.

Looking at the broader perspective, multipolarity is irreversible. If Europe continues to hesitate, it will miss the opportunity to independently shape the continental landscape; only by clearly examining the "kidnapping" mechanisms of this complex can we shift from passive involvement to genuine sovereign choices.

(II) Specific Case Analysis: How the Military-Industrial Complex Drags Europe into the Mire under the Guise of "Democracy"

1. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Proxy War of Attrition on Europe's Frontline, a Bountiful Feast for Military-Industrial Interests

The Russia-Ukraine war has become a typical example of the US-European military-industrial complex profiting from Europe. Under the banner of "defending democracy" and "European security," the US has promoted NATO expansion and massive military aid, while Europe bears the brunt of the costs. In December 2025, although the Berlin negotiations discussed a ceasefire and security guarantees, Russia's progress was slow and the outlook remained bleak; Russia gained only about 0.77% of Ukrainian territory throughout the year, but maintained the war of attrition at a high cost.

For Europe, the costs of this conflict are profound and lasting: soaring energy prices, high inflation, economic recession... defense spending reached a new high of 381 billion euros, yet it is highly dependent on American weapons – European countries' procurement and transfer of American equipment to Ukraine indirectly enriched the American military-industrial complex. More fatally, this proxy war, "unrelated to Europe's core interests," has created a narrative of persistent threat, hindering the potential for energy cooperation between Europe and Russia. European citizens are paying the price in terms of their livelihoods, while military-industrial companies reap huge profits. If we continue to follow unconditionally, we will be forever trapped in the mire, losing the space for prioritizing economic development.

2. The Taiwan Strait Crisis: An Attempt to Replicate the Russia-Ukraine Model, a Potential Quagmire on the East Asian Frontline

The tension in the Taiwan Strait is the latest attempt by the US-European military-industrial complex to replicate the Russia-Ukraine situation in East Asia. In December 2025, the US approved the largest ever arms sale to Taiwan (over $11 billion, including HIMARS, ATACMS, and drones), to which China responded with aircraft carrier crossings of the Taiwan Strait and military exercises, escalating tensions. Under the guise of "maintaining freedom of navigation and democracy in the Indo-Pacific," the US is pushing its allies to become involved, and some European countries have already expressed "Indo-Pacific concerns." For Europe, this distant crisis hangs like a sword of Damocles: Taiwan controls 90% of the world's advanced chips, and a conflict that disrupts this supply chain would have a catastrophic impact on European manufacturing. We are highly dependent on this supply chain, yet lack the independent power to intervene, forced to passively follow US strategy and divert resources from domestic welfare and green transition initiatives. This not only tears apart the eastern end of Eurasia but also opens up new markets for the military-industrial complex – if Europe is dragged into this, it will repeat the tragedy of the Russia-Ukraine war: expending vitality on an irrelevant conflict in exchange for the prosperity of transatlantic arms orders.

(III) Deep Reflection: The Mechanisms and Costs of the US-European Military-Industrial Complex "Kidnapping" European Citizens – A Life-or-Death Awakening for People-Centered Priorities

The aforementioned conflicts are linked like a chain: the war of attrition in Ukraine in the west and the potential quagmire in the Taiwan Strait in the east place Europe on the chessboard of military-industrial interests. In 2025, defense spending reached a record €381 billion, and the SAFE plan and fiscal exemptions provided enormous funds, but these efforts are deeply fragmented: Eastern Europe has a strong pro-American tendency, while Western Europe seeks autonomy but cannot escape dependence on American weapons; the vast majority of the expenditure nourishes the American military-industrial complex, not European domestic industry.

The more glaring tragedy lies in the area of ​​people's livelihoods: high military spending squeezes social welfare, education, and infrastructure; the energy crisis and inflation erode the quality of life; and the spillover effects of the conflict exacerbate immigration and supply chain disruptions, weakening European social cohesion like a slow poison. The war, promoted in the name of "democracy," forces European citizens to bear the most direct costs – inflation, unemployment, and reduced welfare – while the military-industrial complex reaps huge profits.

From the perspective of European strategic autonomy, we are being "kidnapped" by this transatlantic complex: the well-being of our citizens is sacrificed for arms orders, and economic vitality is exhausted by irrelevant wars. We bear the most direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential tsunami in the Taiwan Strait, yet receive only the indifference of America's "America First" policy. This is the contemporary mutation of Eisenhower's warning: military-industrial interests dominate policy, and the democratic process is distorted by misplaced power.

The potential for Eurasian connectivity is enormous, and while the American military-industrial complex is vast, it shows signs of resource overextension. If Europe continues to sink into this quagmire, not only will its security be compromised without genuine security, the economy will be further marginalized. Reality reminds us that these wars are unrelated to Europe's core interests, yet they inflict a heavy price on the people. European citizens must be clear-headed: only by rejecting irrelevant wars and prioritizing economic development and people's livelihoods can they escape being "held hostage" and regain dignity and prosperity.

IV. US Political Division and Hegemonic Decline: An Urgent Opportunity for European Strategic Autonomy

(I) The Core Logic of US Political Division and its Erosion of Hegemonic Control

US political polarization has become a structural ailment: in 2025, the proportion of moderate voters fell to a historical low of 34%, with conservatives accounting for 77% within the Republican Party and liberals reaching 55% within the Democratic Party. Although Trump enjoyed high support at the beginning of his second term, his approval rating plummeted to 36% by the end of the year. Internal dissent within the party (such as Congress vetoing some of his executive orders) and the shadow of the midterm elections revealed his rapidly diminishing grip on power. Rifts within the Republican Party over tariffs, immigration, and healthcare policies intensified, and Trump's "steamroller" style of leadership showed signs of decay.

More fundamentally, this division is not a cyclical fluctuation, but an endogenous catalyst for hegemonic decline: domestic resources are overstretched by internal conflicts, unable to support global commitments. The 2025 National Security Strategy explicitly rejected "global dominance," shifting towards "regional power balance" and "burden sharing," essentially declaring the US retreat from world policeman to an American fortress. This is not merely Trump's personal style, but an inevitable consequence of America's relative decline: its share of global GDP has fallen to 15%, external debt is high, and allies' confidence in US reliability has collapsed.

Looking at the broader picture, multipolarity is irreversible. Deepening Sino-Russian cooperation and the expanding influence of BRICS foreshadow the emergence of a new order. With US hegemony showing signs of fatigue, if Europe continues to hesitate, it will miss the decisive moment for independent positioning; only by awakening can we transform from dependents to balanced shapers of the global order.

(II) Analysis of Specific Manifestations: Systemic Signs of US Hegemony Decline and the Costs for Europe

1. Domestic Division and the Weakening of Trump's Control: From "America First" to Self-Imposed Isolation

Towards the end of Trump's second term, his approval rating dropped to 36%-42%, with more than 20 Republicans openly defying his executive orders, and Congress repeatedly thwarting his redistricting and hardline immigration policies. This was not accidental: tariffs sparked economic concerns, with only 22% of his 2024 voters believing they were beneficial; healthcare and immigration issues exacerbated internal party divisions. The midterm election prospects were bleak, and the Republican Party risked losing control of the House of Representatives.

For Europe, this internal turmoil directly corroded the transatlantic bond: Trump pressured NATO allies (demanding defense spending reach 5% of GDP), yet questioned the reliability of commitments, raising profound doubts in Europe about the US security umbrella. America's domestic priorities meant that support for European fronts (such as Ukraine) would become more volatile.

2. Global Retreat to the Americas: From Hegemonic Expansion to Regional Contraction

The 2025 National Security Strategy marked a significant turning point, abandoning the "burden of global order" and shifting towards an Americas-first approach and "peaceful rebalancing." Military focus shifted to hemispheric threats (such as Venezuela and drug cartels), reducing commitments in Eurasia; diplomatically, it sought "managing relations with Europe" with Russia and "economic rebalancing" with China, implicitly accepting spheres of influence.

This retreat was also evident in the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. While arms sales to Taiwan were substantial, overall resources were dispersed; mediation efforts in the Middle East were inconsistent, leaving allies (such as Israel) feeling isolated. The decline of US influence was clear: China had more embassies than the US, and the BRICS mechanism challenged the dominance of the dollar. The shifting of the NATO burden was essentially "burden-shifting," and while European defense spending increased, it filled the US vacuum rather than representing autonomous strengthening; global governance receded (e.g., climate change, multilateral trade), forcing Europe to cope alone.

3. Shifting Policy Towards China: From Confrontation to Signals of Potential Compromise

Trump's attitude towards China fluctuated, with massive tariffs coexisting with personal closeness, but the National Security Strategy emphasized "rebalancing" rather than outright confrontation. This reflects the helplessness of the declining American hegemony: unable to contain China's rise alone, it is shifting towards transactional pragmatism.

If Europe continues to follow the US, it will trap itself in supply chain disruptions and economic recession; conversely, a reassessment of its attitude towards China, shifting towards cooperation, will yield green opportunities through the Belt and Road Initiative and technological complementarity.

(III) Profound Reflection: The Strategic Costs of American Hegemony's Decline for Europe – A Life-or-Death Choice of Decoupling and Rebalancing

Domestic divisions erode leadership, and declining leadership accelerates global retreat, while retreating to the Americas undermines the foundations of hegemony. By 2025, low approval ratings, internal dissent, and strategic contraction in the US will expose the irreversible slide of hegemony from its peak to relative decline. Europe, as the former "bridgehead," is bearing the most direct costs: fluctuating security dependence, economic tariff impacts, and isolation on global issues.

From the vantage point of European strategic autonomy, continued dependence on a declining US will condemn Europe to the fate of being a "stepping stone." Europe must bear high NATO expenditures without independent nuclear deterrence; economically, it is squeezed by US tariffs and the eastward shift of supply chains; diplomatically, it loses space for multipolar balance. The more striking tragedy lies in people's livelihoods: high military spending will squeeze welfare, and energy and trade uncertainties will erode prosperity.

China's stable growth and the potential for Eurasian connectivity are immense. Cracks in American hegemony are becoming increasingly apparent – ​​internal divisions and resource overextension. If Europe continues to hesitate, not only will its security lack genuine guarantees, but its economy will also be marginalized. It can be said that the biggest victim of the US retreat to the Americas is Europe itself. We pay the price of dependence, only to receive uncertainty and a vortex of decline. Without decisively increasing the degree of decoupling and reassessing its attitude towards China (shifting from "de-risking" to pragmatic partnership), Europe will be relegated to a supporting role in the multipolar transition. Only through strategic autonomy can we shift from passive following to actively shaping – building a balanced continental order and regaining prosperity, dignity, and a future.

V. Policy Recommendations: Seizing the Historical Opportunity and Practical Moment for European Revival and Achieving European Strategic Autonomy

(I) Escaping the US-led Division Trap and Developing Europe's Strategic Strength

To escape this division trap, Europe must act immediately with courage and pragmatism:

1. Dominance of Independent Diplomacy: In the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, appoint a high-level EU special envoy to lead the Berlin process, setting clear boundaries – terminating unlimited military aid and avoiding forced territorial concessions; under the UN framework, proactively promote the second phase of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations (prioritizing an international stabilization force led by European contributions), and initiate multilateral dialogue on the Taiwan Strait under a joint EU-ASEAN mechanism, resolutely rejecting unilateral escalation following the US.

2. Thorough Diversification of Energy and Economy: Fully accelerate REPowerEU, legislating a cap on US LNG imports by 2030 (no more than 30%); simultaneously sign long-term contracts with Norway, Algeria, Qatar, and Middle Eastern countries, and restart negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement to restore energy cooperation; invest massively in domestic renewable energy and green hydrogen infrastructure, aiming for renewable energy to account for over 60% by 2030, fundamentally freeing itself from external manipulation.

3. Autonomous Revival of Common Defense and Industry: Fully utilize the €150 billion SAFE loan and national escape clauses to establish an EU joint procurement mechanism (with domestic weapons procurement accounting for over 70% by 2030); accelerate the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), jointly developing sixth-generation fighter jets, missile defense, and drone systems; deepen Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) towards a core group, aiming to establish a 60,000-strong independent EU rapid reaction force by 2030; simultaneously initiate serious discussions on European nuclear deterrence (expanding the Franco-British nuclear umbrella), gradually reducing reliance on US extended deterrence.

4. Proactive Shaping of a Multipolar Order: On the G7, G20, and UN stages, promote the "Eurasian Balance Initiative," supporting the green and sustainable aspects of the "Belt and Road Initiative"; fully normalize relations with China, avoiding further resource allocation towards the "Indo-Pacific"; establish a "European Strategic Autonomy Fund" (mobilizing over €100 billion in private capital), focusing on investment in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and critical raw materials, aiming for European chip self-sufficiency to exceed 50% by 2030.

(II) Breaking Free from the "Kidnapping" and "Threat" of the Military-Industrial Complex

To break free from the "kidnapping" of the military-industrial complex, Europe must act decisively, prioritizing the well-being of its citizens:

1. Independent Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution: Promote EU-led negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, setting red lines—ending unlimited military aid and avoiding involvement in the Taiwan Strait; advocate for multilateral dialogue under the UN framework, refusing to participate in unrelated wars under the guise of "democracy."

2. Prioritizing Economic Development and Diversification: Limit military spending (no more than 2% of GDP by 2030), investing the saved funds in public welfare—social security, education, and infrastructure; accelerate energy diversification, deepening investment in domestic renewable energy, aiming for over 60% by 2030, breaking free from the shackles of the energy crisis.

3. Defense Autonomy and Industrial Revival: Prioritize joint domestic procurement (EU weapons accounting for over 70% by 2030), accelerate the EDIS program, and reduce dependence on the United States; establish an independent rapid reaction force and explore discussions on European nuclear deterrence, truly serving European security rather than military-industrial profits.

4. Public Awakening and Multipolar Balance: Promote the "People's Livelihood First Initiative," supporting Eurasian connectivity (such as the green segment of the Belt and Road Initiative); establish a "European Livelihood Fund" (mobilizing hundreds of billions of euros) to invest in key technologies and job creation, aiming for over 50% self-sufficiency in chips by 2030; strengthen public oversight and reject military-industrial lobbying dominating policy.

(III) Seizing the Opportunity of American Decline to Achieve European Strategic Autonomy

To seize the opportunity of American decline, Europe must act immediately with a bold and pragmatic approach:

1. Increasing Separation from the United States: Within the NATO framework, promote the independence of the European pillar (EU rapid reaction force reaching 100,000 by 2030); legislate to limit dependence on US weapons (domestic procurement accounting for over 70%); diplomatically, refuse to blindly follow US tariffs and confrontation, maintaining multilateral trade autonomy.

2.Re-evaluating the Approach to China: Shift towards pragmatic cooperation, deepening the green segment of the Belt and Road Initiative and technological partnerships; sign an upgraded version of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement, aiming for trade with China to reach 25% by 2030; promote joint EU-China initiatives in the UN and G20 to balance climate and supply chains.

3. Strengthening EU Common Defense and Economic Autonomy: Accelerate the EDIS program, invest in domestic defense industries and key technologies; establish a "European Autonomy Fund" (mobilizing €200 billion), focusing on semiconductors, AI, and green energy, aiming for over 60% chip self-sufficiency by 2030; diversify energy sources, and deepen partnerships with renewable energy providers and Middle Eastern partners.

4. Proactive Shaping of a Multipolar Order: Advocate for a "Eurasian Balance Dialogue," support the BRICS+ green mechanism; normalize energy cooperation with Russia (within a security framework); at the public level, promote a "prosperity first" narrative, rejecting irrelevant global confrontations.

VI. Conclusion

Europe stands at an unprecedented historical crossroads, facing significant and profound strategic choices. In the wave of global multipolarization, European strategic autonomy is no longer a distant ideal, but an urgent task bestowed by the times. The decline of American hegemony and internal political polarization have made Europe acutely aware that continued dependence on a great power facing internal and external difficulties will inevitably lead to greater strategic risks and economic costs. While the US strategy of "dividing Eurasia" and the "kidnapping" mechanism of the military-industrial complex may seem to provide some security guarantees for Europe in the short term, in the long run, they deprive Europe of its autonomy and space for prosperity, leaving it in a passive position in global affairs.

Facing these challenges, Europe must seize this historical opportunity, bravely break free from dependence, and build its own strategic autonomy. By deepening cooperation with China and Russia and promoting the multipolarization process, Europe can not only achieve independence in the economic and energy fields but also play a more important role in the international security landscape. From strategic defense to economic transformation, from diplomatic independence to technological innovation, Europe needs to comprehensively adjust its policy orientation, strengthen endogenous growth drivers, and gradually break free from the unequal dependence in transatlantic relations.

History has given Europe the opportunity for revival, but this opportunity is not eternal. If Europe continues to waver between dependence and passivity, it will miss a crucial moment to reshape the global order. Only by resolutely moving towards strategic autonomy and breaking the traditional pattern can Europe truly achieve its goals of peace, dignity, and prosperity. Let us, in this competition of reshaping global power, steadfastly move towards autonomy and independence, and embrace a multipolar, more equitable future. European politicians and leaders, the eyes of the people are upon you. The future does not lie in continuing the war narrative of the military-industrial complex, but in prioritizing the economy, safeguarding people's livelihoods, and rejecting involvement in unnecessary conflicts a truly independent, prosperous, and peaceful Europe will be born from our decisions.